The FX Strategists at Australia and New Zealand Banking Group (ANZ) provide brief insights into the key event risks due on the cards next week, with the US FOMC monetary policy decision to headline.
“Australia: Given the AUD’s disappointing performance following employment data, we think any near-term upside from a strong CPI, and by extension receding RBA expectations, will be limited relative to the downside from stretched global risk sentiment.
US: The Fed steps up to the plate. We expect risk markets to remain highly sensitive to changes of language around balance sheet expansion and repo market operations.
UK: BoE’s policy meeting is expected to be a tight call. We are marginally in favor of easing, given that inflation is drifting away from target and tough EU negotiations lie ahead.
Euro area: GDP and CPI are likely to remain subdued amidst stabilizing sentiment data through Q4 2019.
China: Manufacturing and non-manufacturing PMIs will be key to sustaining global momentum. Any downside will weaken confidence in global growth, supporting the USD and JPY in the near-term.“