GDP will fall 13% in Q2 – ANZ

GDP will fall 13% in Q2 – ANZ

The Australian economy is facing an unprecedented challenge as the government put in place policies to ‘flatten the curve’ of the coronavirus. Analysts at ANZ Bank forecast macro figures for the rest of the year.

Key quotes

“Our analysis suggests that GDP will fall 13% in Q2. We expect a partial recovery in Q3, with GDP rebounding 9%.”

“We have assumed further fiscal stimulus over coming months as the Government attempts to cushion the economic impact of the virus.”

“Under the six-week shutdown scenario, we expect the unemployment rate to surge to 13% in Q2 from its current 5.1%.”

“We think that about half of the employment loss in Q2 could be recovered in Q3. By the end of 2021 unemployment is expected to be around 7%.”

 

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